Charlie Nelson

foreseechange
Charlie's business website

Buy Charlie's forecast and analysis reports online

Charlie is a statistician with over 35 years experience in forecasting and data analysis. He applies his skills to client problems and also to social issues. He tracks developments in the broader social and business environment which identifies opportunities and threats. Over the past ten years, for example, he has been advising clients about the opportunities of the booming older population and corporate social responsibility and about the threats of the end of cheap oil.

Charlie has written the first part of a book on forecasting which is aimed at improving forecasting accuracy.

Charlie has applied his talent for pattern recognition, statistical analysis, and his broad general knowledge to identify a major influence on long-term rainfall cycles in southeast Australia, especially Melbourne and the Murray Darling Basin. This is an 18.6 year cycle of the moon, a factor which has eluded the experts. He has made a submission to the 2009 House of Representatives Industry, Science and Innovation Committee enquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia on this subject (http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/isi/weather/index.htm). His updated and extended research (August 2009) on this subject can be read at http://www.charlienelson.com/moonrain.pdf.

He has more recently extended this research to explain the intensification of the drought over the period 2006 to 2009. His findings should lead to improvements in both long term and short term rainfall forecasts for Melbourne and southeastern Australia. They will also improve the identification of periods of high bushfire risks. This July 2010 paper is available at the foreseechange online store at www.foreseechange.com.au.

Charlie's brief bio (pdf format)

Publications

In 1999, Charlie wrote an article for BRW magazine as part of a special feature on the outlook to 2010. The article was titled The Future has Already Happened. Read the article (pdf format).

In 2005, Marketing Science published a paper by John Roberts, Charlie Nelson and Pam Morrison "A Prelaunch Diffusion Model for Evaluating Market Defense Strategies". Read the paper (pdf format).

A list of articles in the media which Charlie Nelson contributed to.